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22. Morality

In a recent poll, the Gallup Organization found that 45% of adult Americans believe that the overall state of moral values in the United States is poor. Suppose a survey of a random sample of 500 adult Americans is conducted in which they are asked to disclose their feelings on the overall state of moral values in the United States. Use the normal approximation to the binomial to approximate the probability that:

(a) Exactly 250 of those surveyed feel the state of morals is poor.

(b) No more than 220 of those surveyed feel the state of morals is poor.

(c) More than 250 of those surveyed feel the state of morals is poor.

(d) Between 220 and 250, inclusive, believe the state of morals is poor.

(e) At least 260 adult Americans believe the overall state of moral values is poor. Would you find this result unusual? Why?

Answer :

The probability that exactly 250 of those surveyed feel the state of morals is poor is approximately 0.9918.

(To find the probability that exactly 250 of those surveyed feel the state of morals is poor, we can use the normal approximation to the binomial with mean np = 500 * 0.45 = 225 and standard deviation √(npq) = √(500 * 0.45 * 0.55) ≈ 10.42, where q = 1 - p.

Then, we can standardize the value of 250 using the formula z = (x - np) / √(npq), where x is the number of people who feel the state of morals is poor.

z = (250 - 225) / 10.42 ≈ 2.4

Using a standard normal table or calculator, we find that the probability of z being less than or equal to 2.4 is approximately 0.9918.

Therefore, the probability that exactly 250 of those surveyed feel the state of morals is poor is approximately 0.9918.

(b) To find the probability that no more than 220 of those surveyed feel the state of morals is poor, we can use the normal approximation to the binomial with mean np = 500 * 0.45 = 225 and standard deviation √(npq) = √(500 * 0.45 * 0.55) ≈ 10.42, where q = 1 - p.

Then, we can standardize the value of 220 using the formula z = (x - np) / √(npq), where x is the number of people who feel the state of morals is poor.

z = (220 - 225) / 10.42 ≈ -0.48

Using a standard normal table or calculator, we find that the probability of z being less than or equal to -0.48 is approximately 0.3146.

Therefore, the probability that no more than 220 of those surveyed feel the state of morals is poor is approximately 0.3146.

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