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Answer :
By comparing the expected values of the two options, the company can make a decision based on maximizing the expected profits.
To analyze the decision of introducing the new line of salad dressings, we can compare the expected values of the two options: conducting a test market or bypassing the test market and introducing the dressings nationally.
Option 1: Conducting a Test Market
Cost of test market: $150,000
Probability of a positive test market result: 0.6
Probability of a negative test market result: 0.4
If the test market is positive:
Probability of successful national introduction: 0.8
Annual profit if successful: $1.6 million
If the test market is negative:
Probability of successful national introduction: 0.3
Annual profit if successful: $1.6 million
Expected value of conducting the test market:
(Probability of a positive test market result * Probability of successful national introduction * Annual profit if successful) + (Probability of a negative test market result * Probability of successful national introduction * Annual profit if successful) - Cost of test market
Option 2: Bypassing the Test Market
Probability of successful national introduction without test market: 0.5
Probability of successful national introduction if test market is negative: 0.3
Annual profit if successful: $1.6 million
Expected value of bypassing the test market:
(Probability of successful national introduction without test market * Annual profit if successful) - (Probability of unsuccessful national introduction without test market * Loss if unsuccessful)
By comparing the expected values of the two options, the company can make a decision based on maximizing the expected profits.
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