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Part B - The Rationale Behind the Demographic Transition Model

**Why does demographic transition take place?**

While the model is based on the European experience of industrialization and accompanying development, it generally applies to most other countries today. Each stage is associated with certain socioeconomic characteristics.

1. **Stage 1: Preindustrial Societies**
Primarily nomadic or agrarian, these societies favor high birth rates to hedge against high mortality from disease and low child survival, and to provide labor. Today, only some isolated tribes show the demographic characteristics of the first stage.

2. **Stage 2: Early Transitional**
As modern medicine and public health become more widespread, death rates decline, but birth rates remain high, largely due to cultural norms. Some of the world’s least industrialized countries, such as those in Sub-Saharan Africa, are in this stage today.

3. **Stage 3: Late Transitional**
As industrialization and urbanization continue, improved access to healthcare, education, and contraception result in declining fertility and mortality. This stage is found today in the newly industrialized countries.

4. **Stage 4: Industrial**
The developed countries of Western Europe and North America have reached this stage, where high public health lowers the death rate and fertility declines due to changing norms and lifestyles, leading to a stabilized population.

5. **Stage 5: Postindustrial**
Some developed countries and some post-communist countries of Eastern Europe are in this stage, where extremely low fertility either equals or falls below the death rate.

**In this activity, you will determine the correct stage of the DTM for different countries based on their birth rates, death rates, and natural increase rates (NIR), comparing them to averages for the more developed, less developed, and least developed countries. Compare first the NIR, then birth rates, and finally death rates, to determine where each country should be sorted.**

| Country | Birth Rate per 1000 | Death Rate per 1000 | NIR (%) |
|---------|---------------------|---------------------|---------|
| More developed countries | 11 | 10 | 0.1 |
| Less developed countries | 22 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Least developed countries | 34 | 10 | 2.5 |
| Belarus | 12 | 13 | -0.1 |
| Peru | 20 | 5 | 1.5 |
| Egypt | 25 | 6 | 1.9 |
| Namibia | 27 | 8 | 1.9 |
| Rwanda | 36 | 8 | 2.9 |
| Thailand | 12 | 8 | 0.4 |
| Yemen | 34 | 6 | 2.7 |

**Drag the country names into their respective bins. If you feel that a country would fit in more than one bin, sort it into the most appropriate bin.**

- **Stage 2: Early Transitional**
- **Stage 3: Late Transitional**
- **Stage 4: Industrial**
- **Stage 5: Postindustrial**

| Country | Bin |
|----------|------|
| Belarus | |
| Egypt | |
| Yemen | |
| Rwanda | |
| Namibia | |
| Peru | |
| Thailand | |

Answer :

Based on the provided birth rates, death rates, and natural increase rates (NIR), we can categorize each country into the appropriate stage of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM).

Belarus:Birth Rate: 12 per 1000

Death Rate: 13 per 1000

NIR: -0.1%

Bin: Stage 1 (Preindustrial)

The negative NIR indicates a population decline, which is characteristic of the first stage. However, Belarus could be considered in the early transitional stage due to its low birth and death rates.

Peru: Birth Rate: 20 per 1000

Death Rate: 5 per 1000

NIR: 1.5%

Bin: Stage 2 (Early Transitional)

High birth rate and relatively low death rate are indicative of the early transitional stage.

Egypt: Birth Rate: 25 per 1000

Death Rate: 6 per 1000

NIR: 1.9%

Bin: Stage 2 (Early Transitional)

Similar to Peru, Egypt is in the early transitional stage with a high birth rate and a relatively low death rate.

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Rewritten by : Barada

Sorting the countries into the respective bins:

- Stage 2 (Transitional): Egypt, Namibia, Rwanda, Yemen

- Stage 3 (Transitional): Peru

- Stage 4 (Industrial): Thailand

- Stage 5 (Post-Industrial): Belarus

To determine the correct stage of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM) for each country, we'll compare their birth rates, death rates, and natural increase rates (NIR) with the averages for more developed, less developed, and least developed countries. The DTM stages are generally characterized as follows:

1. Pre-Industrial Stage: High birth and death rates, low NIR.

2. Early Transitional Stage (Stage 2): High birth rates, declining death rates, increasing NIR.

3. Late Transitional Stage (Stage 3): Declining birth rates, low death rates, decreasing NIR.

4. Industrial Stage (Stage 4): Low birth and death rates, stable or low NIR.

5. Post-Industrial Stage (Stage 5): Very low or declining birth rates, low death rates, stable or negative NIR.

Let's categorize each country:

1. Belarus: Birth Rate = 12, Death Rate = 13, NIR = -0.1%

- This fits Stage 5 (Post-Industrial) due to its negative NIR and low birth and death rates.

2. Peru: Birth Rate = 20, Death Rate = 5, NIR = 1.5%

- This aligns with Stage 3 (Late Transitional) due to its declining but still relatively high birth rate and low death rate.

3. Egypt: Birth Rate = 25, Death Rate = 6, NIR = 1.9%

- Egypt's high birth rate and low death rate suggest it is in Stage 2 (Early Transitional).

4. Namibia: Birth Rate = 27, Death Rate = 8, NIR = 1.9%

- Similar to Egypt, Namibia's high birth rate and moderate death rate place it in Stage 2 (Early Transitional).

5. Rwanda: Birth Rate = 36, Death Rate = 8, NIR = 2.9%

- Rwanda's very high birth rate and moderate death rate indicate it is in Stage 2 (Early Transitional).

6. Thailand: Birth Rate = 12, Death Rate = 8, NIR = 0.4%

- Thailand's low birth and death rates suggest it is in Stage 4 (Industrial).

7. Yemen: Birth Rate = 34, Death Rate = 6, NIR = 2.7%

- Yemen's very high birth rate and low death rate place it in Stage 2 (Early Transitional).

Sorting the countries into the respective bins:

- Stage 2 (Transitional): Egypt, Namibia, Rwanda, Yemen

- Stage 3 (Transitional): Peru

- Stage 4 (Industrial): Thailand

- Stage 5 (Post-Industrial): Belarus