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You recently purchased a share of Yellow Submarine stock that is expected to earn:

- 15 percent in a booming economy,
- 10 percent in a normal economy,
- 1 percent in a recessionary economy.

There is a:

- 10 percent probability of a boom,
- 70 percent chance of a normal economy,
- 20 percent chance of a recession.

What is your expected rate of return on this stock?

What is the standard deviation?

Answer :

The expected rate of return on the Yellow Submarine stock is 8.7%, and the standard deviation is approximately 4.6%.

What is the expected rate of return and standard deviation of the Yellow Submarine stock based on the given probabilities and returns in different economic scenarios?

To calculate the expected rate of return on the Yellow Submarine stock, we need to consider the returns in different economic scenarios and their probabilities. We can use the formula:

Expected Rate of Return = (Return in Boom * Probability of Boom) + (Return in Normal * Probability of Normal) + (Return in Recession * Probability of Recession)

Expected Rate of Return = (0.15 * 0.10) + (0.10 * 0.70) + (0.01 * 0.20)

Expected Rate of Return = 0.015 + 0.07 + 0.002

Expected Rate of Return = 0.087 or 8.7%

Therefore, the expected rate of return on the Yellow Submarine stock is 8.7%.

To calculate the standard deviation, we need to determine the variability of returns in different economic scenarios. We can use the following formula:

Standard Deviation = √[((Return in Boom - Expected Return)²* Probability of Boom) + ((Return in Normal - Expected Return)² * Probability of Normal) + ((Return in Recession - Expected Return)² * Probability of Recession)]

Standard Deviation = √[((0.15 - 0.087)² * 0.10) + ((0.10 - 0.087)² × 0.70) + ((0.01 - 0.087)² × 0.20)]

Standard Deviation = √[(0.006769 × 0.10) + (0.000169 × 0.70) + (0.006769 ×0.20)]

Standard Deviation = √[(0.0006769) + (0.0001183) + (0.0013538)]

Standard Deviation = √0.002148 or 0.046 or 4.6%

Therefore, the standard deviation of the Yellow Submarine stock is approximately 4.6%.

The expected rate of return provides an estimate of the average return an investor can expect from the stock, while the standard deviation measures the volatility or risk associated with those returns.

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