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Given an actual demand of 105, a previous forecast value of 99, and an alpha of 0.3, what is the exponential smoothing forecast for the next period?

A. 94.6
B. 97.4
C. 100.8
D. 101.6
E. 103.0

Answer :

Final answer:

Using the exponential smoothing method, with an actual demand of 105, a previous forecast of 99, and an alpha of .3, the forecast for the next period is calculated to be 100.8.

Explanation:

The question relates to the calculation of the next period's forecast using exponential smoothing. Exponential smoothing is a rule of thumb technique for smoothing time series data using the exponential window function. Given the actual demand (At) of 105, the previous forecast (Ft-1) of 99, and an alpha (α) of .3, the formula to calculate the new forecast (Ft) is:

Ft = α * At + (1 - α) * Ft-1

Substituting the given values:

Ft = .3 * 105 + (1 - .3) * 99

Ft = 31.5 + 69.3

Ft = 100.8

Therefore, the exponential smoothing forecast for the next period would be 100.8.

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