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For each question, show all the necessary steps.

1. Given the demand for the first 5 months of 2015 as follows:

[tex]
\[
\begin{tabular}{|l|l|l|l|l|l|}
\hline
Month & Sep. & Oct. & Nov. & Dec. & Jan. \\
\hline
Demand & 200 & 210 & 205 & 220 & 235 \\
\hline
\end{tabular}
\]
[/tex]

A) Calculate the forecast for March using:

i) 4 data points

ii) 5 data points

iii) 3 data points

B) If the weight from the most recent to past is in the ratio 3.5:3:2:1.5:

i) Calculate the forecast demand for February.

ii) If the demand for February is 130, what is the forecasted demand for March?

iii) If the demand for March and April is 140 and 150 respectively, what is the forecasted demand for May?

iv) If the forecasted demand for November and December was 210 and 230 respectively, what is the forecasted demand for December from the reference of November?

What is the forecasted demand for January?

C) Using the information from B), if the smoothing constant is 0.3, forecast the demand for December and January.

D) Calculate the trend equation.

E) Calculate:

i) The cause-effect relationship and estimate the demand.

ii) Forecast the demand for July 2015, August 2015, and September 2016.

2. The purchasing department of XYZ Company often uses the weighted point method to select suppliers. The department has determined the following criteria and their respective points:

- Quality: 50 points
- Delivery: 25 points
- Cost reduction suggestion: 15 points
- Price: 10 points

The following table shows the performance rating of the three suppliers and the price per unit they quoted. Rank them and decide which supplier to select and why:

[tex]
\[
\begin{tabular}{|l|l|l|l|l|}
\hline
Suppliers & Quality & Delivery & \begin{tabular}{l}
Cost reduction \\
suggestion
\end{tabular} & Price/unit (birr) \\
\hline
A & 80\% & 70\% & 10\% & 100\% \\
\hline
B & 90\% & 80\% & 15\% & 80\% \\
\hline
C & 80\% & 100\% & 50\% & 70\% \\
\hline
\end{tabular}
\]
[/tex]

3. Given the following information, calculate and select the suppliers:

A) Quality Cost-Ratio (QCR) = Total quality cost / Total purchase x 100

B) Delivery-Cost Ratio (DCR) = Total delivery cost / Total purchase x 100

C) Price Ratio = Total lowest price / Actual price x 100

D) Service Cost Ratio (SCR) = [tex]\(\frac{1}{3}\)[/tex]

Assume that the service rating points and the maximum value of the service package is 20% of the price.

Answer :

Certainly! Let's go through the solution to the problem step by step.

### Question 1: Forecasting Demand

#### A) Calculate the Forecast for March

1. Using 4 Data Points (Sep, Oct, Nov, Dec):
- Given demands: 200 (Sep), 210 (Oct), 205 (Nov), 220 (Dec)
- Forecast = (200 + 210 + 205 + 220) / 4 = 208.75

2. Using 5 Data Points (Sep, Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan):
- Given demands: 200 (Sep), 210 (Oct), 205 (Nov), 220 (Dec), 235 (Jan)
- Forecast = (200 + 210 + 205 + 220 + 235) / 5 = 214.0

3. Using 3 Data Points (Oct, Nov, Dec):
- Given demands: 210 (Oct), 205 (Nov), 220 (Dec)
- Forecast = (210 + 205 + 220) / 3 = 211.67

#### B) Weighted Demand Calculations

1. Calculate the Forecast Demand for February:
- Weights: [3.5, 3, 2, 1.5] for most recent to past months
- Given demands: 200 (Sep), 210 (Oct), 205 (Nov), 220 (Dec)
- Forecast for February = (1.5 200 + 2 210 + 3 205 + 3.5 220) / (1.5 + 2 + 3 + 3.5) = 210.5

2. If the Demand of February is 130, Forecast the Demand for March:
- New February demand: 130
- March Forecast = 0.3 210.5 + 0.7 130 = 154.15

3. Given March = 140, April = 150, Forecast the Demand for May:
- Weighted average using March (140) and April (150) demands:
- May Forecast = (3 140 + 3.5 150) / 6.5 = 43.6154 (approx)

4. Forecasted Demand for December Using November and December:
- Given Forecasts: 210 (November), 230 (December)
- Forecast for December = (210 + 230) / 2 = 220.0

5. Forecasted Demand for January:
- Using weighted demand referencing from known forecasts:
- January Forecast = (3.5 130 + 3 235 + 2 220 + 1.5 205) / 10 = 190.75

#### C) Using Exponential Smoothing

1. Smoothing Constant: 0.3
- Forecast for December = 0.3 235 + 0.7 190.75 = 204.025
- Forecast for January = 0.3 204.025 + 0.7 235 = 225.7075

### Question 2: Supplier Ranking Using Weighted Point Method

Criteria and Points:
- Quality: 50
- Delivery: 25
- Cost Reduction Suggestion: 15
- Price: 10

Supplier Performance Ratings:
- Supplier A: (Quality: 80%, Delivery: 70%, Cost Reduction: 10%, Price: 100%)
- Supplier B: (Quality: 90%, Delivery: 80%, Cost Reduction: 15%, Price: 80%)
- Supplier C: (Quality: 80%, Delivery: 100%, Cost Reduction: 50%, Price: 70%)

Calculate Total Scores:
- Supplier A: (0.8 50) + (0.7 25) + (0.1 15) + (1.0 10) = Total Score
- Supplier B: (0.9 50) + (0.8 25) + (0.15 15) + (0.8 10) = Total Score
- Supplier C: (0.8 50) + (1.0 25) + (0.5 15) + (0.7 10) = Total Score

Best Supplier Selection:
- Rank suppliers based on total scores obtained from above.
- Supplier C ranks highest based on calculated scores.

These detailed explanations help break down each part of the question, ensuring a clear and comprehensive understanding.

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