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Scenario 1: Suppose that human body temperatures are normally distributed with mean 98.25 °F and standard deviation 0.73 °F.
Q1a. What is the probability that a randomly selected body temperature will be less than 97.0 °F?
Q1b. What is the probability that a randomly selected body temperature will be greater than 99.6 °F?
Q1c. What is the probability that a randomly selected body temperature will be between 98.1 °F and 99.1 °F?

Scenario 2: In Los Angeles County, 20.2% of the population is less than 18 years old. You create a group by randomly selecting 15 residents of LA County.
Q2a. What is the probability that 5 people in your group will be less than 18 years old?
Q2b. What is the probability that at least 3 people in your group will be less than 18 years old?

Answer :

To tackle these problems, we need to use the concepts of normal distribution for Scenario 1 and binomial probability for Scenario 2.

Scenario 1: Normal Distribution

Given:

  • Mean ([tex]\mu[/tex]) = 98.25 °F
  • Standard Deviation ([tex]\sigma[/tex]) = 0.73 °F

We'll use the Z-score formula to find probabilities for normal distribution:
[tex]Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma}[/tex]
where [tex]X[/tex] is the body temperature.

Q1a. What is the probability that a randomly selected body temperature will be less than 97.0 °F?

  1. Calculate the Z-score for 97.0 °F:
    [tex]Z = \frac{97.0 - 98.25}{0.73} = \frac{-1.25}{0.73} \approx -1.71[/tex]

  2. Using the standard normal distribution table, find the probability corresponding to [tex]Z = -1.71[/tex], which is approximately 0.0436.

Therefore, the probability is approximately 0.0436 or 4.36%.

Q1b. What is the probability that a randomly selected body temperature will be greater than 99.6 °F?

  1. Calculate the Z-score for 99.6 °F:
    [tex]Z = \frac{99.6 - 98.25}{0.73} = \frac{1.35}{0.73} \approx 1.85[/tex]

  2. Using the standard normal distribution table, find the probability corresponding to [tex]Z = 1.85[/tex], which is approximately 0.9678.

  3. The probability of being greater than 99.6 °F is [tex]1 - 0.9678 = 0.0322[/tex].

Therefore, the probability is approximately 0.0322 or 3.22%.

Q1c. What is the probability that a randomly selected body temperature will be between 98.1 °F and 99.1 °F?

  1. Calculate the Z-score for 98.1 °F:
    [tex]Z = \frac{98.1 - 98.25}{0.73} \approx -0.21[/tex]

  2. Calculate the Z-score for 99.1 °F:
    [tex]Z = \frac{99.1 - 98.25}{0.73} \approx 1.15[/tex]

  3. Find the probabilities for [tex]Z = -0.21[/tex] (about 0.4168) and [tex]Z = 1.15[/tex] (about 0.8749).

  4. The difference gives the probability:
    [tex]0.8749 - 0.4168 = 0.4581[/tex]

Therefore, the probability is approximately 0.4581 or 45.81%.

Scenario 2: Binomial Probability

Given:

  • Probability of being less than 18 years old [tex]p = 0.202[/tex]
  • Number of residents [tex]n = 15[/tex]

Use the binomial probability formula:
[tex]P(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k}[/tex]
where [tex]\binom{n}{k}[/tex] is the binomial coefficient.

Q2a. What is the probability that 5 people in your group will be less than 18 years old?

  1. Calculate using [tex]k = 5[/tex]:
    [tex]P(X = 5) = \binom{15}{5} (0.202)^5 (0.798)^{10}[/tex]

  2. Solve:
    [tex]P(X = 5) = 3003 \times (0.202)^5 \times (0.798)^{10} \approx 0.0818[/tex]

Therefore, the probability is approximately 0.0818 or 8.18%.

Q2b. What is the probability that at least 3 people in your group will be less than 18 years old?

  1. We need to find [tex]P(X \geq 3)[/tex], which is [tex]1 - P(X < 3)[/tex].

  2. Calculate [tex]P(X < 3) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2)[/tex].

  3. Use the formula for each and sum them up.

  4. Subtract from 1 to find [tex]P(X \geq 3)[/tex].

Therefore, the probability can be approximately calculated as you sum up these values.

These steps break down the probability calculations for each part of the scenarios.

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